A bad omen? Worrying trends for Arsenal following Mikel Arteta’s final international break as the Premier League title battle with Manchester City intensifies

The Gunners suffered a tough defeat to rivals Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley before international football took center stage.

But what will happen to Arsenal after the final international break of Mikel Arteta’s tenure?

With the help of our friends at Opta, TNT Sports took a deep dive into the data. That data shows a very worrying trend for the Gunners as we head into the end of the season.

Rodri on Man City’s win over Arsenal: “It’s important to show that we can beat them”

Video credit: SNTV

The Gunners’ first hurdle will be on Saturday night when they face Championship side Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals.

Arsenal go into this match as favorites to win the title, but it won’t be an easy match as Saints have not lost in any competitive game since January.

Arteta’s side will then travel to Portugal where they will face Sporting CP in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals three days later.

The Gunners once again defeated the Portuguese side and now look set to qualify for the semi-finals for the second consecutive season.

However, Sporting showed steely resilience in this season’s UEFA Champions League, producing a stunning comeback to defeat Bodo/Glimt in the last 16.

‘He doesn’t know what we’re trying to do’ – Arteta defends Arsenal’s set-piece tactics

Video credit: SNTV

League leaders must not be fooled by Bournemouth’s table. The Cherries currently sit 13th in the table, having only lost seven league games this season.

Arsenal must find a way to get through these three games if they are to restart their campaign, but what does history say about Arsenal’s form after the last international break?

Results of the first three games after the suspension of the season Matchups 2020-21 Loss, Draw, Win Premier League, UEFA Europa League 2021-22 Loss, Lose, Lose Premier League 2022-23 Win, Draw, Draw Premier League 2023-24 Draw, Win, Win Premier League 2024-25 Win, Draw, Win Premier League, UEFA Champions League

The table above shows that the Gunners often struggled to get back on their feet after the March international break.

Arsenal fans will not want a repeat of the 2021-22 season, when they lost three consecutive games to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton, ultimately losing their place in the top four.

But solace can be found in the fact that the Gunners have improved since that season and did not taste defeat in their next game after the final international break of the season.

However, Arsenal shouldn’t get too confident in this position and the reason for that is simple: Manchester City.

Their record after the March international break in the same period is:

Results of the first three games after the season was suspendedCompetition 2020-21 Wins, Wins, LossPremier League, Champions League2021-22 Wins, Wins, DrawsPremier League, Champions League 2022-23Wins, Wins, WinsPremier League, Champions League 2023-24Draws, Wins, WinsPremier League 2024-25Wins, Wins, DrawsPremier League

Josep Guardiola’s side are undeterred by the return of club football after the season’s final international break.

But that impressive record will be put to the test this season when Manchester City face Liverpool in the FA Cup quarter-finals, before facing Chelsea and Arsenal in the Premier League.

When you start digging into the numbers, a trend emerges for Arsenal, as seen below.

Expected season match target winning percentage 2020-21 (Before suspension) 4567.648.9%2020-21 (After suspension) 1317.753.8%2021-22 (Before suspension) 3559.360.0%2021-22 (After suspension) 1017.550.0%2022-23 (Before break)3974.571.8%2022-23 (After break)1017.9140.0%2023-24 (Before break)4074.365.0%2023-24 (After break)1221.366.7%2024-25 (Before break)4578.657.8%2024-25 (After break) 1324.146.2%

Information provided by Opta

In three of the past five seasons, Arsenal have won a worse percentage of games in all competitions after the final international break of the season than they did before.

The low Expected Goals figure is not surprising given the small number of games played, but it is concerning that the Gunners are struggling to replicate their early-season form towards the end of the season.

If you look at City’s numbers, the results are pretty similar.

Expected season game target winning percentage 2020-21 (Before suspension) 4687.680.4%2020-21 (After suspension) 1522.0166.7%2021-22 (Before suspension) 44105.472.7%2021-22 (After suspension) 1430.264.3%2022-23 (Before break)4393.769.8%2022-23 (After break)1834.1477.8%2023-24 (Before break)4595.073.3%2023-24 (After break)1430.271.4%2024-25 (Before break)4590.546.7%2024-25 (After break) 1637.875.0%

Information provided by Opta

City had also improved in recent times, ahead of the March international break.

Whether it’s due to fatigue or players returning from injury, international competition appears to be taxing, and the team that manages to overcome this hurdle has the best chance of winning silver in May.

The table below shows why Arsenal should be more concerned, especially as the title race has intensified over the last two months.

Arsenal points per game Man City points per game 2020-21 (Before suspension) 1.452020-21 (Before suspension) 2.372020-21 (After suspension) 2.112020-21 (After suspension) 1.882021-22 (Before suspension) 1.932021-22 (Before suspension) 2.412021-22 (After break)1.502021-22 (After break)2.562022-23 (Before break)2.462022-23 (Before break)2.262022-23 (After break)1.502022-23 (After break)2.552023-24 (Before break)2.292023-24 (Before break)2.252023-24 (After break)2.502023-24 (After break)2.802024-25 (Before break)2.002024-25 (Before break)1.662024-25 (After break)1.782024-25 (After break)2.56

Information provided by Opta

Arsenal have only beaten City once in the past five seasons since the last international break.

The numbers for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons will be even more painful for the Gunners, who watched City overwhelm them and win the Premier League title.

Last season, City ended the season without winning a major trophy for the first time since 2017, and despite finishing the season in third place, managed to achieve a better ‘points per game ratio’ in the league compared to Arsenal.

Arsenal and Arteta must find a way to finish the season well to fend off the challenge from Guardiola and his group of back-to-back champions.

While the Gunners appear to be in the lead, particularly in the league, the numbers suggest that there is likely to be a decline in performance in recent months, and if that happens, Guardiola and his team will be quick to pounce.