England have reached a point where every mistake carries the weight of history, and few games carry more history than the international clash that awaits the Three Lions at Atlanta Stadium on Wednesday (July 15).
What stands between Thomas Tuchel’s side and their first World Cup final appearance since 1966 is an Argentina team that survived, rather than storming through the tournament chasing a piece of immortality, and became the first team in history to win back-to-back World Cups.
Both teams came through with knockout wins, but rarely looked convincing during the match. That’s what makes this semi-final so interesting.
Harry Kane and Lionel Messi each boast attacking talismans and can still put up elite numbers even in the twilight of their international careers. Both teams also have young, increasingly important offensive players in Jude Bellingham and Julian Alvarez, who carry the country’s hopes.
Argentina defender Cristian Romero celebrates after the quarter-final against Switzerland
Above all, both teams are scoring points by overcoming their defensive problems rather than solving them, and this is shaping up to be the most open match of the tournament.
Garry Neville summed it up perfectly during ITV’s post-match broadcast of Argentina’s 3-2 come-from-behind victory over Egypt. “If you look at (Cristian) Romero and (Lissandro) Martinez, they are the best ‘worst centre-halves’ in the world,” Neville said.
“If you look at them, they’re conceding goals constantly. But they don’t care about conceding goals because the opposition scores goals. They have great character and keep going forward.”
In short, anything can happen.
After dissecting both teams’ performances on Machine Football, it’s easy to see why England vs. Argentina is being touted as a potential tournament match, and why England are poised to seize the moment.
Argentina won the match without being able to control it.
In six games, Lionel Scaloni’s side have scored three goals in five innings and have played in two of the three “games of the tournament” – 3-2 against Cape Verde and 3-2 against Egypt. They have conceded 6 goals, but the expected number of goals conceded is 3.4. Of the four teams remaining in the tournament, only Spain (1.8) has a lower xG vs. rating.
Therefore, although they have conceded relatively few quality chances, primarily as a result of their possession (no team has completed more accurate passes than Argentina’s 611.5 in a game), individual lapses continue to punish them.
Their defensive duel numbers reveal the extent of the problem. Against Algeria, they won only 31% of their defensive duels. Against Austria, it dropped to 17%. Jordan, 11%. Egypt, 24%; Cape Verde, 26%; Switzerland, 27%.
Argentina has never won with even a third of their defense in their six games. Despite Albiceleste’s typical ball-holding ability, he doesn’t always control his opponents, he just finds ways to outplay them.
England’s tournament follows a surprisingly similar pattern. Tuchel’s side conceded two goals despite winning against Mexico, needed extra time to beat Norway and looked vulnerable whenever their opponents attacked quickly in transition.
Both teams arrive in Atlanta with offensive momentum, but neither arrives with defensive certainty.
Vulnerability on the left side
Argentina’s Lisandro Martinez after scoring Egypt’s second goal (later canceled) in the Round of 16 match (Image: Getty Images)
The most obvious weakness is on the left side of the Argentine defense.
Lisandro Martinez remains one of the best ball-playing centre-backs in the world, and has historically compensated for his relatively diminutive size at 5ft 9in with great promise, but his aerial duel percentile ranks fourth from the bottom in the world, which is unsurprising in the machine football model.
Alongside him on the wing, Nicolas Tagliafico wins more defensive duels reliably than 86% of other full-backs, but ranks high in the 97th percentile for fouls and only in the 9th percentile for dribbler one-on-one defense.
This combination creates an obvious route for England. Harry Kane had already shown how dangerous he can be when a quality shot reaches the penalty area, hitting home Declan Rice’s corner in England’s World Cup opener against Croatia almost a month ago.
Whether from Rice, Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon or England’s other set-piece routines, Martinez’s zonal crosses could become one of England’s most productive attacking weapons.
On the opposite flank, right-back Nahuel Molina provides another chance. His offensive qualities are immediately evident, ranking in the 77th percentile in acceleration, while defensively he ranks in the 42nd percentile level in duels won and in the 22nd percentile in aerial duels.
If England can isolate either of Argentina’s full-backs one-on-one, there is space to exploit.
England needs to be cautious about the transition of power
The reason this game feels so open is because England have many of the same concerns.
John Stones, who acquitted himself against Erling Haaland in the Norwegian quarter-finals, is known as a powerful aerial defender and is ranked 95th in the world for defensive headers, but only 31st for tackles.
That’s important against the speed of Julian Alvarez and the magic of Lionel Messi. Machine Football’s model ranks Messi in the 100th percentile for dribbling (without the highest bar), as well as the 99th percentile for shot quality and the 99th percentile for combination play. If you’re an Argentina fan, don’t give him another penalty.
Messi’s attacking contributions have remained consistent even into his late 30s, and his performance at the World Cup erased any doubts that he could still perform at the highest level (Image: Machine Football)
Needless to say, Messi is unlikely to do any damage to England in the air. But if space is allowed, he will hurt opponents between the lines.
In addition to his mesmerizing dribbling ability, the great man has racked up the most expected assists of anyone in the competition (3.4). England’s centre-back looked much stronger defending Messi’s cross than he did looking like he was running directly towards him.
Despite scoring a tournament-record four goals from set-pieces and achieving an impressive cross success rate of 33.3%, Argentina are only 15th in terms of accurate cross success rate per game (4.3), well behind third-placed England (6.0).
Albiceleste is also 31st in the tournament for accurate long balls per game (18.3), making it clear that he prefers creating chances through deft passing in the middle rather than going direct.
England will need to keep switching on at the back to avoid being left open to Messi’s magical moments.
Potentially decisive midfield battle
Although the quality of the ball is high, Argentina’s midfield is not impossible to break through. Enzo Fernandes gave his all in the knockout stages, but he won only 25 out of 60 matches in the entire tournament, a success rate of only 42%.
Opponents also dribbled past him on five of their eight attempts. Given that he is usually used alongside Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister, who drew much criticism for his often lackluster performances in the Premier League last season, it is safe to say that Argentina’s midfield could struggle to defend in open spaces if England’s central players can attack with energy and purpose.
Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandes plays a deep role for Argentina, but lacks the defensive strength to keep the midfield solid in transition (Image: Machine Football)
Argentina’s midfield four against Switzerland – Fernandes, Mac Allister, Rodrigo de Paul and Leandro Paredes – each averaged 4.5 sprints per 90 throughout the World Cup.
England’s midfield trio of Jude Bellingham, Elliott Anderson and Rice are averaging 6.0 points each, underscoring the Three Lions’ need for greater intensity.
These numbers suggest that Bellingham, or potential replacements Morgan Rogers and Eberechi Eze, could attack Argentina in the middle, rather than simply getting around them.
England have already shown that Argentina’s back four could be at risk if they remove Fernandes in the first stage of their transition, making this a perfect opportunity for England’s Player of the Tournament.
The most open match of the World Cup?
Neither team has been able to control the game consistently. Top scorers Argentina (17 goals) still struggled to contain their opponents, having to make the fourth-highest number of tackles per game (20.2) of all teams in the tournament, revealing their reliance on last-minute interventions.
England, on the other hand, have already conceded two goals per game twice, with goalkeeper Jordan Pickford having the third-worst goals against (-2.7) of the 44 goalkeepers at this year’s World Cup.
Jordan Pickford had a shaky game against Norway (Image: AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
However, both teams have enough attacking quality to overcome those weaknesses.
Kane attacks Martinez in the air. Messi flows into the space in front of the English defenders. Bellingham slalomed his way through the roped Argentine midfield. Saka isolates Tagliafico.
All individual matches are pointing in the same direction. If either goalkeeper keeps a clean sheet, it would go against almost everything both teams have shown throughout this World Cup.
It sounds like a tough task to surpass Leo Messi, who has already scored eight goals and shows no signs of slowing down, but let’s be honest, it will be.
But Kane, Bellingham and the rest certainly have the tools and feel they have the momentum to seize the day and finally put an end to Argentina’s stubborn World Cup defense.
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