Sunday’s controversial defeat to Arsenal meant West Ham looked set to be relegated to the Championship until they beat Tottenham with two games remaining to reach safety.
West Ham have been hit hard in the relegation battle (Image: Kevin Hodgson/Getty Images)
The decision to exclude Callum Wilson’s 95th-minute equalizer for Arsenal vs. West Ham on Sunday had a huge impact on both ends of the Premier League table. Arsenal are one step closer to winning the league for the first time in 22 years. For West Ham, that meant they slipped further down the table.
The Hammers are 18th in the Premier League and can extend their lead over Tottenham to four points by beating an already safe Leeds on Monday night. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side put up a good fight against the league leaders on Sunday, but they lost their second consecutive game for the 18th time this season, taking their record to just nine league wins.
Wilson’s stoppage-time goal was reminiscent of his 92nd-minute winning goal against Everton last month. The crowd at the London Stadium went wild in celebration before a painful delay of nearly five minutes as VAR and referee Chris Kavanagh listened intently to replays.
In the end, West Ham striker Pablo was deemed to have interfered with Arsenal goalkeeper David Raya’s attack just before Wilson’s goal. It was chalked away, the Gunners breathed a sigh of relief and the Hammers lamented their good fortune.
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West Ham will contact PGMOL to express their displeasure with this decision, but it cannot be changed. Only two games remain – against Newcastle and Leeds.
The reality that faces them is cruel. They have been in the Premier League since 2012, during which time they played five seasons in Europe, finishing in the top half six times and lifting the Conference League trophy.
Statistics agency Opta currently has West Ham as overwhelming candidates for relegation with 87.65 per cent. Tottenham have won their last two games under manager Roberto de Zerbi and defeating Leeds on Monday night will almost certainly put the nail in the coffin.
West Ham are staring into the abyss (Image: Shaun Brooks/Getty Images)
Relegation is nothing new for West Ham, who have fallen out of the top flight twice during the Premier League era, in 2003 and 2011, but it would be mentally and financially painful.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire told the Daily Mail in January that relegation would cost the Hammers around £100m, with a significant drop in broadcast, matchday and hospitality income, coupled with a reduction in commercial opportunities and sponsorship. The decline in broadcasting revenue was particularly significant, going from around £120m per season in the Premier League to £45m in the Championship.
“The big issue is commercial. West Ham earned £58m of commercial income in 2023-24,” Maguire explained. “In the Championship, you probably get a fifth or a tenth of the income from shirt sponsorship compared to the Premier League because the games aren’t played in different countries.
“We can’t charge the same amount for border advertising, etc. When you add all these numbers up, there’s a £100m black hole that needs to be filled.”
Relegated teams will benefit from parachute payments designed to soften the blow and prevent clubs from further plummeting. This means that if relegated, West Ham will receive 55 per cent of their previous broadcast revenue from next season’s Premier League, and 45 per cent and 20 per cent in the second and third seasons respectively, if required.
But the financial disparity between divisions remains a rift, especially for a club that only two years ago toured Europe for the third consecutive season.
A potentially costly decision for West Ham (Image: Marc Atkins, Getty Images)
But it’s not over yet. West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen has vowed to keep fighting after the bitter ending to Arsenal. “Regardless of the decision, we lost the game. We lost points,” he told Sky Sports. “Do or die. We can’t lose, we can’t do this. We keep going.”
The Hammers just have to do that or they will follow Wolves and Burnley through the trap door and become the biggest fish in the small pond below.
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