WIs it possible that the final between Madrid and Atleti will be played again in the Champions League, where the two teams met in Milan 10 years ago and in Lisbon 12 years ago?
The arithmetic answer is that there are very few. Very few. Betfair has carried out a mathematical analysis based on the probabilities of different possible scenarios depending on the odds in the Champions League.
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Analysis of these scenarios shows that Real Madrid have a 12.06% chance of reaching the final in Budapest (regardless of their opponent), while Atlético Madrid are two places lower at 4.76%. The probability of the combined option Derby is approximately 2.31%. In other words, even if this edition of the Champions League were played 100 times, Real Madrid and Atlético would only meet in the final twice.
The probability of snow falling for five consecutive days in the metropolitan area is also similar.
But if there’s anything Real Madrid and Atlético are known for, it’s their stubborn loyalty to defying all logic to overcome the impossible. In the case of Los Blancos, we have the data to prove it. They have won the Champions League five times in the last 10 years, but have never been among the favorites. In the case of Atlético Madrid, they were at a disadvantage in reaching the final twice against their eternal enemies.
Real Madrid vs Arsenal, third most likely final
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid is the 10th most likely option after Real Madrid vs. Barcelona, with a probability of 7.30%. The most unexpected final: Liverpool vs. Sporting Portugal, with a probability of just 0.91%…the most expected, Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich, with a probability of 17.96% for all combinations.
