RReal Madrid appear to have virtually booked their ticket to the Champions League quarter-finals after defeating Manchester City 3-0 at the Santiago Bernabé. Fede Valverde was in charge that night, producing a legendary first-half performance that saw him score a hat-trick, helped by two incredible assists from goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.
Courtois was busy making the world-class saves we’ve come to expect from him in high-stakes situations, but his delivery proved to be just as deadly as his shot-stopping. The second leg at the Etihad is still scheduled for next Tuesday, but history suggests the contest is effectively over.
Real Madrid have a perfect record in European competitions, leading by at least three goals after the first leg, having won 35 of the last 35 times. There’s always room for firsts in football, but the mountain Pep Guardiola has to climb has never looked so steep.
Tactical nightmare: Pep Guardiola and the history of Champions League hat-tricks
The 3-0 defeat tied for the worst first-leg result in Josep Guardiola’s illustrious career and was only the third time his side had lost by such a margin (the previous ones being Bayern vs. Barcelona in 2015 and City vs. Liverpool in 2018).
Both of these previous instances resulted in eliminations. But the real story of the night was Valverde’s arrival at one of the most exclusive clubs in football history. Valverde joined the elite list by becoming the eighth player to score a hat-trick against Pep Guardiola’s side.
Sergio Ajello (2014) Lionel Messi (2016) Jamie Vardy (2016 and 2020) Christopher Nkunku (2021) Victor Jiqueres (2024) Kylian Mbop (2025)
What makes Valverde’s feat even more historic is that he is the first non-forward to score a hat-trick in the first half of a UEFA Champions League final. He joins a list of players who have scored three goals in the opening 45 minutes of a KO match, including Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland and Anthony Gordon, who accomplished the feat just last round.
Premier League crisis: Can City resist a 6% chance of reversal?
It’s been a disastrous week for English football on the continent. The six Premier League teams (Arsenal, Chelsea, City, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham) combined for a dismal record of 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. Teams other than Newcastle have the advantage of playing at home next week, but the mental blow they have taken at the Bernabble feels particularly heavy.
Manchester City can at least thank Gianluigi Donnarumma for keeping a glimmer of hope on life support. A penalty save against Vincius Jr. prevented a 4-0 scoreline that would have ended in a tie. Statistically, out of 850 European games, only 54 (6.4%) were overturned by three goals.
If that penalty had been imposed, the odds of a reversal would have plummeted to an almost impossible 1.8% (only 7 out of 390 were achieved). Home-field advantage alone won’t be enough for City to overturn this. They will need to solve a Madrid team that looks as if they have perfected the art of finals competition in Europe.
