WWith only a few months left until the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the shocking murder of longtime Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader El Mencho has political leaders and security analysts pondering not only its impact, but also the possibility of an informal truce between criminal organizations and the state, at least through the tournament’s high-profile window.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum insisted that “every guarantee” was in place for fans and teams traveling to the six World Cup host cities across Mexico, including Guadalajara, Monterrey and Mexico City.
“There is no risk,” she said at a recent press conference, reiterating continued assurances from FIFA officials.
But authorities have had to balance that optimism with the unvarnished reality. Since the deadly February 22 operation by the military that killed El Mencho, cartel fighters in multiple states have reportedly burned vehicles, set up barricades, and engaged security forces, resulting in dozens of deaths and widespread chaos.
The question on many people’s minds, from policymakers to travel planners, is not whether the violence will subside completely, but whether the cartels might consider a realistic cease-fire as the World Cup approaches.
Uncertainty surrounding violence
After El Mencho’s death, severe uncertainty surrounding the CJNG’s leadership, particularly the successor to his son Lubun “El Mencito” Oseguerra Gonzlez, who is imprisoned in the United States, has raised questions among domestic and international security analysts about how much cohesion the cartel will have in the coming months.
Ray Donovan, former head of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and current CEO of Stack21 Solutions, provided a clear example of that skepticism when discussing the prospects for negotiations between cartels and Mexican authorities.
Donovan, who once oversaw the operation that led to the capture of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmun, told the Post that he believes a stable ceasefire is unlikely at this stage.
“I’m not really convinced under the Sheinbaum administration, because I feel like Mr. Sheinbaum is very focused on the rule of law,” Donovan said. “I think it would take a really strong reputation[within the cartel]to call for a cease-fire, and there is no one in particular at this point.”
Security expert Dr. Raul Bentes suggested that a pause in violence could be strategically beneficial for the cartels, at least while the world watches and Mexico prepares to host the tournament.
He told reporters that the CJNG may avoid continuing open attacks on highways and urban centers, saying continued large-scale violence could prompt an aggressive crackdown by authorities and jeopardize the country’s role as host nation.
Bentes said that by showing calm during the World Cup and effectively communicating to rival groups and security forces that “what we need now is for the country to be at peace and for the World Cup to take place,” the cartels will be able to relieve pressure on themselves and then refocus other priorities.
This type of calculation is not unheard of in other parts of the world. In El Salvador in the early 2010s, rival gang leaders agreed to suspend violence with the government in exchange for concessions, significantly reducing the murder rate for several months.
These ceasefires were controversial and complex, but they demonstrate that negotiated peace, even temporary, has long been a part of interactions between criminal states.
