England’s World Cup hasn’t even started yet, but there’s already one decision made by manager Thomas Tuchel that could decide the Three Lions’ tournament. It’s John Stones vs. Marc Gehi.
The Mirror’s chief football correspondent John Cross reported on Tuesday that manager Thomas Tuchel “loves” Ezri Konsa’s “pace, tenacity and reading of the game” and that his place in the starting line-up is all but certain. Cross suggested in his predicted eleven that Three Lions veteran Stones is likely to receive more attention than his former Manchester City team-mate, despite Guehi being almost a first-choice England centre-half for the past three years due to Tuchel’s “toughest decision”.
Cross added: “Guech probably remembers when Tuchel didn’t start in his first game in charge of England and still wonders if the former Chelsea boss who let him leave Stamford Bridge really likes him. But that’s probably in Guech’s mind.”
On the surface, this sounds like a strange call-up – the 32-year-old, who is perpetually injured and left the club at the end of his contract, is preferred to the 25-year-old he replaces at club level, and is a man who has become one of the Premier League’s most reliable centre-backs in recent years.
It is not unreasonable to think that Tuchel is acting on his reputation. Stones has always been a great talent and for many, including Guehi, was England’s best centre-back of the past 15 years, but there is no doubt that Guehi was in better shape heading into the competition.
However, when looking at both through the machine football model, there is no sentimentality and a different picture emerges. Instead, if Stones does indeed start against Croatia, it will be a tactical decision based on one thing and one thing only: set-pieces.
The numbers behind the big phone
Mark Gehi vs John Stones stats (Opta)
Playing time: 1690 v 1144 Interceptions per 90: 1.6 v 0.87 Points fouled per 90: 0.69 v 0 Possessions won per 90: 3.41 v 4.01 Clearances per 90: 4.15 v 4.25 Duels per 90: 9.11 v 4.09 Duel success: 63.2% vs. 78.9% Aerial duel success: 66.3% vs. 83.3% Dribble passes per 90: 0.37 vs. 0.24
(Manchester City figures are for 2025-26 season only)
Tuchel has made no secret of the fact that he is focused on maximizing England’s performance in dead-ball situations. If you treat this as a priority, some stats will stand out above others.
Machine Football ranks Stones in the top 1% in the world for heading ability. Not just among centre-backs, not just among Premier League defenders, but across all players in our database.
Guehi, on the other hand, is near average. He ranks in the 48th percentile for defensive headers among centre-backs, a huge gap between the two potential starters.
Stones isn’t the biggest defender, but he’s easily one of the best aerial defenders in soccer, despite being only two inches taller than his rivals.
This is important when you are a high-pressing team expected to dominate possession and force opponents into long stretches, but it is also absolutely essential given that Tuchel has made it clear that set-pieces will be a key part of England’s approach in this tournament.
Stones’ elite aerial profile helps explain his selection, while Guehi’s stronger ball-winning numbers highlight what England will sacrifice in open play (Image: Machine Football)
England’s set-piece plan
Delivery has already been accounted for. Declan Rice completed an average of 4.51 turns per 90 during England’s World Cup qualifying campaign, ranking him in the top 5% of crossings in the world according to this model.
Tuchel will reportedly employ Arsenal’s set-piece skills, with Bukayo Saka set to become another elite player if he starts. He ranks in the top 2% of machine football crossers.
Marcus Rashford is a delivery expert himself, regularly converting set-pieces for Barcelona last season and averaging 4.31 corner kicks per game in La Liga.
Therefore, the question remains: who will stand by to attack those deliveries?
If Harry Maguire is unavailable, a replacement aerial threat will need to be identified. Stone reaching the back post is a completely different proposition for Guehi, and Tuchel understands that.
trade off
Mark Gehi is competing for the starting spot with Ezri Konsa and John Stones (Image: Richard Pelham/Getty Images)
This doesn’t mean Guehi is a bad player. In fact, the model suggests he has probably surpassed Stones in terms of pace of recovery and all-round play, and is now the more complete centre-back.
Guehi ranks in the top 5% in the world for creativity and passing accuracy, which is unusual for a defender. He also scored higher than Stones in tackles, ball recoveries, and defensive actions.
In many ways, Guehi is Stone’s successor in the club game. He is a centre-back who is naturally expansive and able to influence the game all over the pitch, and his estimated transfer fee in our model of £82m (almost 10 times Stones’ £8.4m) reflects this, along with his age, availability and long-term potential.
It’s easy to argue that Guehi is the better option throughout the league season. However, this is to be expected in the final tournament. At the end of the day, Tuchel’s job is to pick the team that gives England the best chance of a one-shot victory.
risk
One of the painfully obvious concerns about John Stones is his availability. The former Everton player has had a fantastic career, but injuries have hampered his recognition as one of the best players in the world.
Stones played just nine league games last season behind Guehi’s 35, but that’s a genuine concern in a competition where England need to play seven games a month and have already lost Tino Livramento to injury and have concerns about Saka.
But Tuchel knows this better than anyone because he watches him train every day. If he is keen to start Stones, it is because England’s coaching staff believe he is qualified enough for the job.
judgment
Indeed, there is a strong argument that Guehi is the better defender at this point. But that’s not necessarily the question Tuchel is trying to answer.
The selection of Germany’s squad was controversial, to say the least. Few can fault him for avoiding unpopular decisions, and this one is no different.
England have elite set-piece tailors in Rice, Rashford and Bukayo Saka. England, ranked fourth in the world, are expected to dominate the territory, meaning set-pieces are inevitable.
Over and over again last season, we saw teams that were able to take advantage of these situations gain the upper hand in the game. Heading ability is important for it to work.
Stones is therefore likely to start against Croatia. Not because of emotion or reputation, but because he is the right tool for Tuchel’s job.
