“Why is Harry Kane so deeply depressed?”
If you’ve followed England over the last few years, you’ve probably heard that question many times. Maybe you’ve asked that question yourself.
But it’s about time people stopped complaining.
Kane, his country’s all-time leading scorer, has scored a mind-boggling 61 goals for Bayern Munich this season, while being more involved in the build-up than ever before, and is currently preparing to enter his world’s best form for what will likely be his final World Cup as England captain.
So why does Kane, 32, seem able to defy the laws of time and all conventional wisdom about what it means to be a centre-forward, let alone slow down?
We used machine football data from a supercomputer to analyze how he learned the technique. So the next time you hear that complaint, you can tell your friend exactly why Kane fell so deep and why that particular pub “hot take” should be locked in the bin.
Kane’s final form
Gareth Southgate’s decision to use Kane at Euro 2024 was heavily criticized. England lacked dynamism and often played in a crowded manner. This seems to have been due to Kane’s tendency to fall into deep depressions.
Former England striker Gary Lineker was particularly unhappy with Kane’s play. Lineker said: “A striker has two jobs: to score goals, which Harry Kane did well throughout his career, and to create space.
“Against a back three, he has to extend the play, make one-sided runs and then go short, so he doesn’t have to come too far to receive the ball. To create chances, he has to create more space for the midfield players at the back.”
Alan Shearer even questioned whether Kane still had the legs to extend his play, as Lineker suggested. “The older I get, the more I need pace around me and around me,” Shearer said.
“He could still score goals, head the ball, get into position in the box, but one thing he couldn’t do was run in behind. Harry Kane is the same now.”
“He needs a player with legs to run over there and create space. So I would put (Anthony) Gordon in the team. (Phil) Foden is occupying the same space as Kane at the moment and it’s not working.”
But far from declining, Kane has evolved in a way that most centre-forwards never achieve.
In his first season in the Bundesliga (2023/24), Kane averaged 18 per 90 passes, which rose to 21.5 last season. He is 24 years old this season. This seems simple enough. As we saw earlier with Wayne Rooney, top strikers enter the twilight years of their careers and become more and more creators.
Paradoxically, however, it is only in front of goal that Kane has improved. Over the same three years, his goals per game increased from 0.99 to 0.93 to 1.23. The traditional expectation of sacrificing creativity at the expense of goals doesn’t seem to apply at all to Kane.
Kane’s profile shows that his increased creativity has not hampered his goalscoring threat in the slightest (Image: Machine Football)
He’s not just depressed. In 2023/24, he completed an average of 3.03 progressive passes per 90, compared to 4.2 this season, an increase of 38%. Kane has aggressively pushed his team forward from deep areas, with his number of passes into the final third increasing from 2.88 per 90 in 2023/24 to 4.3 this season.
unicorn of england
In the case of England, this change is even more pronounced. Against New Zealand and Costa Rica, Kane averaged 26.61 per 90 passes and 4.7 per 90 shots, both higher than in any previous Bundesliga season.
England international Kane is shooting more than ever, while also getting involved further from goal. This is a trend that has developed throughout Tuchel’s tenure as manager, with the German demanding more and more from his captain as a distributor.
In the 2024/25 Nations League season, Kane averaged 24.93 passes per 90 and link-up plays 6.23 per 90, both of which were the best returns in the competition over the past three years, but he continued to score close to one goal per game.
In World Cup qualifying, he averaged 6.04 touches in the box per 90. Rather than leaving dangerous areas, Kane chooses his moments to deadly effect.
Against Costa Rica on Wednesday night, Kane played 61 minutes, completing 17 passes, one through pass and three touches in the box. His floating pass to Gordon just before halftime ultimately earned him a come-from-behind penalty and highlighted his unique skill set. It’s the kind of pass a pure penalty box poacher would never attempt or even bother executing.
Although his xG 0.11 didn’t pull up many trees, Kane’s role in the Orlando friendly was as much a filler as a finisher. After all, his ability to make the most of every scoring moment was never in question.
With the right adjustments to the profile of those around him, Kane will be able to unleash his unique talents at the World Cup – playing deeper, passing more, entering the box less often, yet somehow scoring more than ever before.
The data has been pointing in that direction for a while, but this summer Kane should finally get the recognition he deserves.
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