Heat will decide the World Cup – despite Thomas Tuchel’s best efforts, could put players at risk

Multiple factors come together to shape a World Cup, but this summer the most dominant factor will be clear from the get-go: heat.

It’s no surprise that England manager Thomas Tuchel is taking that seriously. “We’re not used to being in this kind of heat and humidity,” he said after the team flew to Florida for pre-tournament training and acclimatization camp. “This World Cup will have many challenges, the heat being one of them, but we are already prepared.

“We understand players’ individual reactions to heat and have put cooling strategies in place. We have worked with Team GB and experts from around the world to come up with solutions to help players adapt.”

Other deep-pocketed teams competing in the 2026 World Cup will likely do the same. But weather will still likely be a deciding factor, playing a key role in the majority of the 108 games to be played in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

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The last World Cup was postponed to winter so Qatar could host it. This is not a huge concession. Instead, FIFA tried to alleviate the heat wave with a variety of compromises. But experts remain concerned about what will happen between June 11 and July 19 in North America, after seeing a worrying preview at last summer’s Club World Cup.

Professor Mike Tipton of the University of Portsmouth is a leading expert on physiological and psychological responses to adverse environments such as extreme heat and has worked with numerous elite athletes. He is part of a group of experts who wrote to FIFA last month warning that player safety was at risk due to the way things were done this summer and called for stronger health and safety measures.

Wet bulb temperature (WBGT), a composite metric that takes into account ambient temperature, humidity and radiant heat, is expected to exceed 28 degrees Celsius at 14 of the 16 World Cup venues. Despite many organizations using 28°C WBGT as a threshold, FIFA chose to use 32°C WBGT this summer. Professor Tipton thinks that could be dangerous.

“FIFA has decided on a temperature of 32 degrees Celsius, which is quite a high temperature,” he told Mirror Football. “There are going to be a lot of different impacts, some of which are obvious, and you’re going to see people struggling with the heat and dousing themselves with water.

“But the least impactful thing is that the game changes. There are fewer sprints, there is less work. That’s why so many of the early rounds of the Club World Cup ended in penalty shootouts, because there are certain strategies that can’t be adopted.

“Those who play regularly in the heat are going to have a competitive advantage because they just know who to play with in those conditions. If you’re relying on guys running 10km in a match, you’re going to have a hard time achieving that.”

“Additionally, there is heat syncope, where the administrator loses consciousness and has to lie down. Heat exhaustion, where people become exhausted due to the amount of sweating and the amount of electrolytes lost. And then there is hypothermia, where the body temperature rises uncontrollably, leading to the medical emergency of heat stroke.”

“At the World Cup, the WBGT is high and people will be exercising. When you exercise, you generate 1 to 2 kilowatts of heat. It’s like having 1 or 2 bars of fire inside your body. The ideal temperature for continued activity is about 11 degrees Celsius. In the US it can be 33 degrees Celsius to 37 degrees Celsius. This is 25 degrees Celsius higher.”

In response to these concerns, FIFA told Mirror Football: “FIFA is committed to protecting the health and safety of all players, referees, fans, volunteers and staff. Climate-related risks will be assessed as part of the overall tournament planning and managed in close collaboration with host cities, stadium authorities and national authorities.”

Once thresholds are reached, “venues will activate additional cooling capacity, including shaded areas, misting systems, cooling baths and increased water distribution.” All matches in the tournament will include a three-minute water break between each half, and the substitute benches will be climate-controlled.

FIFA is also working to adjust schedules to account for heat, avoiding the hottest parts of the day at venues such as Houston and Dallas. “Through close cooperation with host country governments, medical experts and emergency authorities, FIFA remains committed to providing a safe, resilient and memorable tournament experience for all involved,” FIFA added.

According to a report from World Weather Attribution, approximately 25% of all matches are likely to be played at temperatures above 26°C WBGT. An estimated five matches are expected to be held at WBGT temperatures of 28°C or higher, a figure that has almost doubled since 1994 due to global warming.

And while it is the most alarming situation that poses a danger, it is also bound to affect the spectacle. A study by Climate Central found that players are likely to encounter performance-impairing situations in 97 out of 104 games. “Rising temperatures are not only a serious health risk for players and fans, but they are also starting to affect the quality of the matches themselves,” said Morten Thorsby, who will play for Norway at the World Cup.

“When heat affects sprints, recovery and overall intensity, it changes the way football is played, and not for the better. We must take these risks seriously and ensure the game we love is protected, both for those on the pitch and for everyone watching around the world.”

Professor Tipton, at least, expects the games to be played at a slower pace, but warns that limits could be pushed further in the knockout stages. “Heat issues have a knock-on effect not only in the result of athletes getting hot, but also in all the other strategies they have to put in place to compete,” he explains.

“And the problem with poor fitness is that it’s even more prevalent in a competitive environment. As soon as you put players in a hot competitive environment, the normal natural controls that try to stop them are overridden. Especially potentially dangerous matches are being played in hot environments with higher levels of competition and more important outcomes as you get closer to the end of the tournament.”

After a season of heightened anger towards officials and VAR, the impact on referees should also be considered. “The umpires are pretty healthy, but they’re older on average, so they’re going to be taxed by the heat and have a hard time keeping up with the play,” Tipton said.

“We also know that low body temperature affects key decisions and reduces decision-making. So we can see that officiating standards are affected. The data is there. When you’re far away from the game and you’re not able to make good decisions, you have a lot less confidence in your officiating level compared to a cooler environment.”

Unfortunately, due to global warming, this type of issue is not a one-time consideration, but what will happen in the future must be considered first. The most adapted team could win this summer’s World Cup. In the future, FIFA will have to find a stronger solution to this problem.

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