Manchester City are ready to corner Arsenal and have all the statistics and history in their favor ahead of Sunday’s big Premier League clash at the Etihad
Man City are now six points behind Arsenal and looked ruthless on Sunday (Image: Getty Images)
They say that bad things happen three times, and here I’ll give you an example from Arsenal. Manchester City haven’t lost in April for five years, the Gunners haven’t won at the Etihad for 11 years and Mikel Arteta has never beaten them in his own half.
So there was an unwanted sense of deja vu as the Gunners were cornered by City in the final week of the season, with Josep Guardiola and co smelling blood and Sunday looking like a foregone conclusion.
Saturday marked the beginning of an exciting weekend in the Premier League title race. Bournemouth extended their unbeaten run to 12 games, but the bigger news was their 2-1 win at the Emirates, giving them a new look in the title picture.
Arsenal, who lead City by nine points, know they could be overturned within 11 days, a series of events that began with City’s 3-0 win over Chelsea. Their performance has all the hallmarks of an unstoppable force.
The problem for Arteta is that his team seems like an immovable object. It looks very mobile. Three defeats in four games have snuffed out their dreams of a quadruple title, and fears are starting to grow among a particularly nervous fan base that they could be heading into another trophy-less season.
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The importance of Sunday’s 4:30 p.m. game cannot be overstated. Since winning the Premier League in 2004, Arsenal have never been in a better position to win the title than they are this season. They have been leaders for most of the season, holding a comfortable lead against a City side that threatened to slip into top gear, but they continued to stall.
April is relentless
But the worrying thing for Arsenal is that we are now in the fourth month of the calendar year. April and City have linked up on a relentless winning streak, something we’ve seen many times in Guardiola’s side. In fact, you have to go back to 2021 to see the last time City lost was in April, when Leeds pulled off a shock victory.
Leeds were the last team to beat Man City in April – that win dates back to 2021
Since then, the numbers have not been surprising. City played 22 games, winning 20 of them and drawing twice. Such a stalemate will come against Liverpool in 2022 and Manchester United 12 months ago.
Those 20 wins include a 4-1 win over Arsenal in 2023. It was Arteta’s first experience of watching City’s upcoming games, and the games that would continue to come until City left. The Manchester team put in a strong performance that day, breaking the Gunners’ spirit and clinching the title with a game remaining.
Arsenal are stronger now than they were back then, but the loss to Bournemouth showed there was still some fragility left in the north Londoners. The numbers back it up. City have been unbeaten for five years as of April, but Arsenal have lost seven and drawn seven. Even if they want to cross the line, the numbers won’t jump this time.
Arteta’s Etihad nightmare
Arteta once spent much of his time at the Etihad smiling as he watched City trains roll by alongside Guardiola. These feats as number two led Arsenal to make him number one.
The return journey to the blue side of Manchester is a mix of frustrating and unforgettable. The initial 1-0 deficit was nothing to be ashamed of, but then the pain really started. A humiliating 5-0 result in 2021 saw City score twice and put on a man within 35 minutes, leaving the away section deserted before half-time.
Mikel Arteta endured some difficult trips to Manchester (Image: Action Images via Reuters)
Guardiola will stick by Arteta despite Arsenal being pointless, goalless and bottom of the table. “He is more than just a great coach. He has the right character and is incredibly loved by all of us. We were sad when he left.” “I’m sure he’ll do a good job at Arsenal if they believe in him,” the City manager insisted.
There were signs of this the following year when Arsenal embarked on a title challenge, but still lost 4-1 in the decisive match at the Etihad. Twelve months later they fought to a goalless draw, at which point they were at the top of the table, only for a narrow comeback to see City claim another title.
Rodri ridiculed their impasse, claiming they had the mentality of a team that didn’t want to lose more than they wanted to win. He said: “When they came here they faced us at the Etihad and I looked at them and said, ‘Oh, they don’t want to beat us, they just want a draw’. And given that mentality, I don’t think we’ll do the same.”
Arsenal will fear further collapse late in the season
Last season, Arsenal looked poised to eliminate the Etihad’s hoodoos, leading 2-1 in stoppage time despite being one man short for more than half of the game. John Stones’ latest equalizer will deny Arsenal the psychological victory they so desperately need.
And on Sunday, even if the title race is still six games long, whichever team wins could be mentally devastating. Gary Neville recently claimed it was time for Arsenal to go to Manchester and win to highlight the passing of the baton.
“I don’t make predictions. I’m pretty bad at making predictions,” he says. “But this is the year they go to win at City. That’s where they’ll really realize they’re champions.”
If that happens, much of recent history will have to be rewritten, including the rare April defeat for Guardiola and his team.
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