Two matches between Arsenal and Manchester City could mark the end of Manchester City manager Josep Guardiola’s highly successful era in English football
Mikel Arteta faces his mentor at Wembley for his first trophy of the season (Image: Getty Images)
Mikel Arteta and Josep Guardiola hugged before kick-off at Wembley, marking the 16th time the managerial rivals have hugged each other. And it goes without saying that today’s encounter in the Carabao Cup final, and the next encounter at the Etihad Stadium on April 19th, will have special significance.
If Arteta beats his former training ground coach twice, there is a good chance Guardiola will hasten his departure from English club football. Victories at Wembley this afternoon and in Manchester four weeks later will all but guarantee Arsenal to win at least two trophies this season. Carabao Cup and Premier League.
Between the two games against Manchester City, Arsenal will play the FA Cup quarter-finals at Southampton, while Pep’s side will face Liverpool in the last eight. In each draw, the odds for Arsenal to win are much shorter than the odds for City to win.
In terms of odds, Arsenal are currently only 12 to 1 against a four-to-one winner. But first, Arteta must achieve something he has only managed to do four times in the last 15 managerial competitions. Let’s beat Guardiola.
read more: Why Arsenal vs Man City Carabao Cup final referee was ‘banned’ from refereeing Liverpool matchread more: Premier League wonderkid switches allegiance from England ahead of World Cup
This is by no means a given, but one thing is certain. If City can beat the Premier League leaders at Wembley, it will be close. For all the talk about their style, or lack thereof, consider this simple fact about the 2025/26 Arsenal team.
They have played 49 games in all competitions, losing only three due to odd goals. Dominik Szoboszlai scored the winning goal at Anfield in the 83rd minute, Emi Buendia gave the hosts a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa in the 90th minute and Matheus Cunha sealed victory for Manchester United in London in the 87th minute. It’s truly an unforgiving record.
However, those words do not do Arsenal justice. Arteta has reached a stage where he doesn’t even need to verbally defend his and his team’s approach to winning football matches. Perhaps we should tell the critics to take another look at the goals scored by Eberechi Eze and Declan Rice that helped Arsenal beat Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.
Josep Guardiola has one season left on his Manchester City contract (Image: Getty Images)
Or even the goals from Noni Madueke and Eze that got us into the last eight of the FA Cup. This team has players who can play great games.
Or perhaps Arteta should simply point to the team’s 106 goals scored in all competitions. Sure, 37% of those goals were scored from set pieces, but it doesn’t take a math genius to mean that 63% of those goals came from open play.
As it happens, if I had to make an educated guess about the differences between the two teams at Wembley, it would probably emphasize Arsenal’s superiority in set-pieces, both offensively and defensively. Alternatively, it could highlight Arsenal’s defensive superiority.
City’s defensive record has been impeccable, conceding 44 goals in 48 games. However, Arsenal have conceded just 32 goals in 49 games.
Josep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta have faced each other 15 times, with the Arsenal manager winning just four times (Image: David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
That means they have scored 106 goals and conceded 32 goals this season. How they go about things is pretty impressive any way you look at it. And they’re doing things in a fairly normal way, unless their set-pieces become more effective.
They are very organized and combative when defending, and creative, quick and ruthless when attacking. That’s the norm for elite teams. Admittedly, they are not City’s most successful teams under Guardiola. But winning styles evolve.
If Arteta succeeds today at Wembley and then at the Etihad, it will be in the style of winning, leaving his master behind. That’s why Guardiola may decide, a year before his contract expires, that it’s time to end his great spell at City.
Join our new WhatsApp community and receive Mirror Football content every day. Community members also receive special offers, promotions, and advertisements from us and our partners. If you don’t like our community, you can check it out whenever you like. If you are interested, please read our privacy notice.
Sky Sports Premier League and EFL package discounts
£49
£35
sky
Get the deal here
Sky has reduced the price of its Essential TV and Sky Sports bundle for the 2025/26 season, saving you £336 and offering over 1,400 live matches from Premier League, EFL and more.
Sky broadcasts at least 215 live Premier League matches each season, increasing to up to 100, as well as Formula 1, Darts, Golf and more.
