Each team has fewer than 10 games left to fulfill their ambitions this season. Whether it’s achieving a top feat, securing a spot in Europe next season, or staying within the division.
But what are the chances that your team will realize the dream this season?
Our friends at Opta have crunched the numbers again and provided the latest odds on where each of the 20 protagonists of this long-running drama called the Premier League will end up when the final whistle blows across the country on May 24th.
premier league prediction table
Gunners aim to keep City in their rearview on route to title glory
Mathematically, a late attack from a chasing pack is not strictly impossible, but it seems highly unlikely that this season’s Premier League champions will not be either Arsenal or Manchester City.
With so many near misses in recent years, including three consecutive second-place finishes, the Gunners currently hold a seven-point lead and are considered favorites to eventually cross the line, with Opta giving them a 94.4% chance of winning.
Given City have games in hand and will welcome a top-flight team to the Etihad Stadium in April, the 5.6% chance of City chasing the north Londoners again seems slim, but at this late stage Josep Guardiola’s side will need to be near perfect if they hope to turn Arsenal around.
As well as meeting in next weekend’s EFL Cup final, the two teams are also scheduled to play in the UEFA Champions League and FA Cup, which could have a knock-on effect and add further turmoil to the title race in the coming weeks.
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Highlights: Valverde rocks Man City with first-half hat-trick
Video credit: TNT Sports
The big battle that will decide the UCL hunt?
Finishing in the top four will ensure a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League, with just three points separating Manchester United in third and Liverpool in sixth, with Aston Villa and Chelsea in fourth and fifth respectively.
Opta estimates the Red Devils have a 56% chance of remaining in the top four (76% for top five).
Conversely, Villa were on the brink of reaching the top not too long ago, but their form has plummeted, with just two wins in the same period as Man United’s resurgence. Despite this, a top-four finish is still favored at 62% (top-5 at 82%).
Chelsea have a 40% chance of finishing in the top four (64% in the top five), while Liverpool currently have a rate of 37.5% (62% in the top five).
The battle for Champions League qualification is likely to be decided by a matchup between the main contenders, with the final week of the season set to see some heated battles between the quartet.
Key matches between the top 4 chasers
Dates: March 15 Man United v Aston Villa April 18 Chelsea v Man United May 2 * Man United v Liverpool May 9 * Liverpool v Chelsea May 17 * Aston Villa v Liverpool
*Date TBA
Apart from these four schools, Brentford has less than a 4% chance of finishing in the top four and less than a 10% chance of finishing fifth.
However, as we await decisions on both domestic and continental cup competitions, it is currently unclear how far down the league the European spots will be allocated, although it seems very likely that seventh place will earn a place in the UEFA Conference League.
The Bees, who have never played in Europe, have a 58% chance of finishing seventh or higher, raising hopes for a historic first victory.
Spurs go around the drain in shocking battle for survival
The bottom part of the table is very interesting.
Even if they outperform them, Burnley only have a 1 in 200 (0.5%) chance of retaining their Premier League status.
With these two teams effectively eliminated, there is one spot left, and four teams are currently vying to avoid it.
West Ham currently occupy a formidable 18th place with 28 points, level with Nottingham Forest, one place above them.
The shockingly named Tottenham Hotspur are in 16th place with 29 points, while Leeds United are one place above them with 31 points.
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Spurs players look lost, but Tudor needs to instill belief – Postecoglou
Video credit: TNT Sports
The Hammers are currently 47% favorites to be relegated, but Leeds are the least likely of the four teams to be relegated and are thought to have less than a 1 in 10 chance of returning to the Championship after being promoted last season.
Forest, who will be in charge for the fourth time this season under manager Vitor Pereira, have a 28.7% chance of remaining in the Premier League, but one team in particular is attracting attention in the battle to remain.
Spurs, who won last season’s UEFA Europa League and are still on the verge of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League, could be staring at the unthinkable scenario of playing outside the top flight for the first time since the 1977-78 season.
The North London Giants are without a win in their last 10 Premier League games and have lost their remaining five, heading into their next league game away to champions Liverpool at Anfield.
Opta give themselves only a 17.6% chance of going through the relegation pit, but it could be a tough end to the season for the struggling north London side.
Despite being given just under an 8% chance of elimination, Leeds are taking nothing for granted and know they need to pick up valuable points in the coming weeks.
Four of the remaining nine games are against struggling sides, with a potentially big showdown against West Ham on the final day.
As well as a battle for the top four, there is a good chance that these ‘six points’ will shape the bottom of the standings in May.
Key matches between relegation candidates
FixturesMarch 22 Spurs vs Nottingham ForestApril 10 West Ham vs WolvesApril 18 Leeds vs WolvesApril 18 Nottingham Forest vs BurnleyApril 25Wolves vs SpursMay 2*Leeds vs BurnleyMay 9*Spurs vs LeedsMay 24*West Ham vs Leeds
*Date TBA
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