Since their 3-0 win against Everton on October 26, Spurs have taken just 12 points from a potential 54 points and have plummeted down the league table.
Over the last five games, Spurs have been jointly tied with Wolves for the worst record in the league, but Wolves are yet to overtake Derby’s undesirable league record for lowest goalscorers.
The situation is dire and fans are increasingly worried that Tottenham may indeed face relegation this season, but how likely are they to actually be relegated?
What does the manager say?
Many Tottenham fans were deeply dissatisfied with how long it took the club to move Thomas Frank when things clearly weren’t going well.
They are currently managed by Igor Tudor, and his first game in charge of the club highlighted the difference between them and their local rivals as they aim to challenge for the Quadruple.
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Gerrard says Tottenham players must ‘take responsibility’ for Frank’s sacking – ‘They will feel guilty’
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Tudor has a history as a short-term manager and the club accordingly signed him until June.
Tudor has never been at a club for a full two years, making his debut as manager in his native Croatia at Hajduk Split, his longest spell at the club at just under 22 months and 78 games.
He has had some recent success with Marseille, posting a career-high winning percentage of 56.3%, before continuing unconvincing short stays at Lazio and Juventus.
Spurs now need the former Juventus centre-back to make an immediate impact in his first Premier League job. He recognizes the challenges he faces, but that’s probably not what fans want to hear.
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Igor Tudor has had his job cut back at Tottenham Hotspur to save the season.
Image credit: Getty Images
He told BBC Radio 5 Live: “The team is full of problems at this moment.
“The only key is to train every day and be humble. We need to be more aggressive. We need to be more compact. Those are the keys.”
“You understand the gap in mental acuity between one team and another. This is something we need to change. We saw that we have players who can do this, but we need more time to do this.”
“Thinking about relegation doesn’t do anyone any good.”
So, the new manager is also talking about being demoted…
What do their appearances tell us?
This is undoubtedly the biggest factor in why many feel Tottenham are at serious risk of decline unless they rebuild properly.
Spurs have lost their last three games, two of which were at home to Newcastle and Arsenal, and are in free fall.
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This seems to have been particularly costly, as the Hammers were creeping closer and this victory seemed to reinvigorate them.
The fact that Spurs’ Premier League form is on par with a Wolves side preparing for life in the Championship is contradicted by their frankly bizarre UEFA Champions League record.
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Highlights: Spurs secure UCL top eight spot, relieve pressure on Frank
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Domestic form suggests that Spurs could absolutely lose, but will European form ultimately lead to a move?
What do the statistics say about Spurs’ chances of relegation?
Facing the league leaders will always be a big ask for Igor Tudor and he was still missing a number of key personnel, but losing the opening game turned him into a big plus for the Spurs manager.
He became the first Tottenham manager to lose his opening Premier League game since Andre Villas-Boas in August 2012, although each of their previous nine games had ended in a draw or better.
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That in itself is an undesirable statistic, but what does OPTA say about their form?
Spurs are averaging 1.07 points per game in the Premier League this season. In the 20-team league, the only team to be relegated with such a high PPG was West Ham in 2002-03 (1.11).The 29 points are the second lowest after 27 games in the Premier League season, after the 1997-98 season (27 points).Based on their current PPG, they would finish the season with 41 points, which would have only earned them relegation from the PL in the 2002-03 season (38 game season only).In the remaining 11 games of last season (Sunderland replaced by Southampton and Leeds replaced by Leicester), Spurs’ record was 2 wins, 0 losses and 9 draws.
There are certainly some positives for Tottenham fans, but if you look at their PPG since the 3-0 win over Everton on October 26th, it’s just 0.67 and they only need seven more points to reach 36 points.
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Micky van de Ven scored two goals in Tottenham’s 3-0 win over Everton in October. Since then, they have won just twice in the league.
Image credit: Getty Images
Although this is not very safe as a total, it has been enough to guarantee Premier League football in each of the last nine seasons, with a survival rate of 60% (18 out of 30 seasons would have been good enough).
Tottenham may take some comfort from past data, but who’s waiting to see if that can be achieved?
What are Tottenham’s remaining games?
Spurs have 11 Premier League games remaining this season, five of which are at home, and Spurs’ record is far worse.
At Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season, they have won just two of their 14 home matches, posting a disappointing PPG of 0.71.
Their results improved significantly in away matches, with five wins and four draws out of 13 away matches, an average of 1.46 PPG, and a positive goal difference of 1.
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So an extra away game can be seen as a positive, but who are they playing against and when are the important games?
They then face the difficult task of traveling to Anfield 10 days later before returning to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for a huge six-point relegation clash against Nottingham Forest on March 22.
Brighton are back at home following Sunderland’s away game in April, and Tudor have a big game away to Wolves who should be sure to pick up the three points.
Opponent dates Fulham (a) Sunday 1st March Crystal Palace (h) Thursday 5th March Liverpool (a) Sunday 15th March Nottingham Forest (h) Sunday 22nd March Sunderland (a) Weekend 11th April Brighton (h) Weekend 18th April Wolves (a) Weekend 25th April Aston Villa (a) Weekend 2nd May Leeds (h) Weekend 9th May Chelsea (a) 17th May Everton (h) 24th May
The remaining four games will be tough, with Aston Villa and Chelsea facing the top of the table, Leeds likely still fighting for their own safety, and Everton hosting a likely safe side on a potentially dangerous final day with nothing to do but avenge their home defeat.
It’s clear from all the stats, form and comments from the new manager that Tottenham are fighting, but will they actually be eliminated?
It remains to be seen whether Tottenham will defy the odds, as the statisticians are in their favor.
