Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United remain strong outsiders, but a string of enthralling matches and newfound confidence could see them creep towards the top of the table.
A word of warning. A friend once said that statistics are used to determine what will or won’t happen in soccer. He said they were the last refuge of miscreants. Or something like that.
And we all know the more common sayings about lies and terrible lies. But we’re currently on international break, so if you’re a Premier League fanatic and you’re into that sort of thing, there’s plenty of time to look at the facts and figures from the opening 11 games.
And if you had enough time, you might have even looked at the standings at this stage in each season of Premier League history. Here’s what you might find.
In 16 of the 33 seasons, the title was won by the team that finished in first place after 11 games. This means that there have been 17 cases in which a team that was in first place after 11 games failed to become Premier League champions.
And the team responsible for five of those instances was Arsenal. Arsenal were the last team to fail to win the Premier League after leading the table after 11 games.
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At this stage in 2022/23, the Gunners held a four-point lead over future champions Manchester City. The Gunners currently hold a four-point lead over Manchester City.
As my friend hinted, these stats shouldn’t affect the fate of this season’s title at all. But what they show is that even if they lead the table after 11 games, their overall success will be little more than a formality.
And one of the things that’s a bit interesting about these stats is the gap that was filled by the teams that were worse at this stage but won the title. In terms of points, at this stage of the season the furthest they are from the top when they finally reach the championship is eight points. And it only happened twice.
But with that potentially happening, the five teams currently on 18 points cannot be left out of the title race. That’s why Manchester United can’t be left out of the title race.
With participation in the EFL Cup now over and European football absent from the schedule, Ruben Amorim’s side are set to play 10 Premier League games over the next seven weeks. Here are the current standings of the teams competing in these 10 games: 13th, 10th, 18th, 20th, 9th, 6th, 14th, 20th, 16th, 17th.
Yes, United will play Wolves twice in three weeks in December. Happy Christmas. Of the next five expeditions, only one will be of any significant distance.
But the road trip to Crystal Palace will be followed by visits to Wolves, Aston Villa, Leeds and Burnley. For Amorim and his men, there won’t be much celebratory time on the journey.
Numerically speaking, this fixture list only gives United an advantage over teams competing in Europe and the EFL Cup. And most of them seem to boast stronger teams than Amorim. However, the influence of Brian Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha was huge, not to mention the stabilizing effect of keeper Senne Lamence.
United have barely improved in the last two games of a five-game unbeaten run, with 2-2 draws against Spurs and Nottingham Forest, but they now look like a team that believes in their manager’s system and, most importantly, believes they can win games. And that’s quite a part of the fight.
For the bookmakers, United could win the title with anything from 33-1 to 50-1, but there’s a reason the bookmakers are so rich. They don’t make many mistakes.
However, the most recent of the two teams to overcome an eight-point deficit after 11 games and be crowned Premier League champions did so in the 2002/23 season. Manchester United. Amorim’s team might be worth a bet, if only for the casual bettor.
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