Ten games into the Premier League now, Arsenal enjoy a comfortable lead at the top of the table while Wolves and West Ham struggle, but is their fate already sealed?
The Premier League table has already changed significantly from the first five games, but given there are only 10 games to go, can we take anything from the current situation?
Arsenal will certainly hope so, having established themselves at the top. Thanks to their excellent defensive line, they have won many games and are currently in first place with a six point difference. Liverpool were showing relentless momentum with five wins from five games, but since then they have only won one game and are currently in third place.
All of this shows that the landscape can change rapidly within a very short period of time. But on both ends of the table, it’s important not to give yourself too much to do.
At the end of the day, no one regrets giving away the buffer and Arsenal will be happy to have it now. Liverpool and Manchester City are seen as the only teams who can stop the Gunners from ultimately winning the league title.
At the bottom of the table, many teams could find themselves in a relegation battle. It doesn’t look like the three promoted teams will fall back any time soon, as has been the trend so far. Sunderland in particular have had a fantastic start to the season.
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Some of the more established teams have struggled in the early stages of the season, which was largely the case last season and the year before that, but it means relegation will no longer be formal.
Will the champion be decided in 10 games?
Well, if you ask Pep Guardiola and City, they will tell you that not being top of the table in November is no big deal. That said, they have become famous in recent years for racking up relentless wins to ensure they finish at the top.
From 2021 to 2024, they won four league titles on the trot. This is the only team in England’s history to achieve that. At every turn, they weren’t at the top of the pile. In 2021/22, they were five points behind Chelsea, almost the same difference as Arsenal.
Arsenal lead the table with 25 points. This is slightly above the average number that the eventual champion accumulates after 10 games (24.7). However, across 33 seasons in the Premier League, only 14 times have a team topped the table at this stage and gone on to win the title.
City have 19 points, but only seven teams have earned that number of points after 10 games and are crowned champions. Arsenal have a six-point lead over City, the most any team has won at this stage to come from behind and win the title, so they can’t afford to close the gap any further.
There is no doubt that the Gunners will bear the scars of being overhauled by Guardiola’s team. They were in control of their own destiny in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, only to falter in the final months against City’s relentless battle to finally finish top of the table.
Over the past 10 years, only four teams with a lead after 10 games have won the title. It’s worth noting that three of those games, Man City in 2017/18, Liverpool in 2019/20 and Liverpool in 2024/25, were dominant from the get-go and were almost unchallenged en route to becoming champions.
Are the teams in last place doomed?
It’s much more common for a team to pull off a big run late in the season than it is for a top team to lose completely. With no wins and just two points after 10 games, Wolves need to make history, but it’s not inconceivable.
No team has ever maintained their Premier League status with two points from 10 games. However, at this stage only four teams, including Wolves from last season, have managed to do so from a three-point position.
They traded Gary O’Neill and Vitor Pereira and were eventually able to reach a safe position and even record a six-game winning streak at the end of the year. However, the team sacked the Portuguese coach after another terrible start to the season as their search continues.
Nottingham Forest, who have six points, and West Ham, who have seven points, are also in the relegation zone, but a number of teams have climbed up from there.
The promoted trio of Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland are putting on a great show. Sunderland are fourth in the table as a result, with Regis Le Bris earning major praise. To date, no promoted team has fallen down the table after accumulating 18 points after 10 games. This is a positive sign for the Black Cats.
Leeds with 11 points and Burnley with 10 points are already in double figures, two places above the relegation zone, but they are certainly looking over their shoulders. However, they can glean a lot of positives from over 10 years of work.
The last promoted team to be relegated with at least 11 points after 10 games was Cardiff, back in the 2013-14 season.
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