After two rounds of the Premier League match, the expected goal table is calculated, providing engaging insight into how each team’s season can be pan-out
For the two weeks leading up to the 2025/26 Premier League season, some clubs have already shown their temperament. After the first round of the match, an interesting alternative perspective on league rankings emerged.
There were some outstanding results over the weekend. Manchester City was stunned by a surprising 2-0 home loss in Tottenham on Saturday, but Manchester United’s misery stuck in a 1-1 stalemate at Fulham.
Thanks to the last minute winner of the 16-year-old Rio ngumoha, he won two to two wins on Monday night at Newcastle, but Liverpool’s reigning champion was not impressive. Chelsea also turned their heads in a 5-1 victory over West Ham United.
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With a whopping 36 rounds still remaining, there is still not much football being played. However, with the support of Stats Gurus Opta, a table is compiled based on each team’s expected goals, providing a unique measure of performance so far.
The Expected Goal (XG) is a metric derived from the goal chances and shot value of each Premier League team, and has become a popular tool for assessing teams and performance. Provides theoretical estimates of the number of goals that the team should score. This table utilizes statistics and data from the first two games of the season.
It’s not perfect now. How else would you explain that Chelsea topping the table? They failed the net in a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace on the first day, and were undoubtedly worth losing that game – but after an emphatic victory with West Ham on Friday night created a wealth of opportunities, they boast an XG Chelsea of 4.35.
Arsenal sat second in 4.19 xg and surpassed its expected target by 1.81 after netting six in their first two matches. Meanwhile, Man UTD’s struggle in the final third is clear, and it is clear that Renee Yoro’s lonely goal from the corner this season is his only goal. Data reveals that Reuben Amorim’s team’s XG is 3.15.
Brighton, who failed to find the back of the net against Everton, has the worst “goal-to-xg” ratio at -2.91.
Manchester City’s XG stands at 4.02, primarily due to wolves’ 4-0 thrashing. Liverpool has 2.9 xg despite scoring seven goals on two fixtures following a thrilling victory over Newcastle. Nottingham Forest and Brentford have XGs of 2.76 and 2.70 respectively, with the former scoring four goals and the latter suffering from just two goals to slow performance. Newcastle’s XG is slightly lower than Liverpool at 2.4.
Both Tottenham and Sunderland are above XG. Thomas Frank’s side has found five nets compared to 3.43 xg, but Sunderland continues to outperform 1.53 xg despite failing to score at Burnley.
The worry for Aston Villa, who slightly missed out on qualifying for the Champions League last season, is the fact that Unai Emery’s side is third from the bottom of the table.
XG Premier League Table
position
Chelsea
4.35
Arsenal
4.19
Man City
4.02
Brighton
3.91
Tottenham
3.43
Man Utd
3.15
Bournemouth
2.99
Liverpool
2.9
Nottingham Forest
2.76
Brentford
2.70
Flam
2.52
Newcastle
2.4
Everton
2.4
Leeds United
2.30
Burnley
1.93
Crystal Palace
1.76
Sunderland
1.53
Aston Villa
1.39
West Ham
1.29
Wolves
1.02
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