Chelsea face a surge in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 following a tough first-leg defeat against Paris Saint-Germain in the French capital. Although the possibility of elimination has increased, there is still a chance of a comeback, albeit a narrow one.
Chelsea suffered a 5-2 defeat at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday night, a result that drastically changed the outlook for the match. For the majority of the match, the match looked balanced, with the scores level going into the final 15 minutes. However, the developments in the final stages belonged entirely to the reigning European champion.
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Midfielder Vicinha broke the deadlock with a lob to give PSG the lead late in the match. Immediately afterwards, substitute Hviča Kvaratscheria struck the decisive blow, scoring twice and turning a close game into a three-goal advantage for the French side.
It is very unlikely that Chelsea will win.
The variation in probabilities was dramatic. Chelsea’s chances of reaching the quarter-finals fell to just 7 percent after the first leg, according to Football Rankings’ predictions. Before kick-off in Paris, English clubs had a 53 per cent chance of winning.
Despite the bleak outlook, Chelsea can point to one recent result that is encouraging. Last summer, the Blues defeated PSG 3-0 in the Club World Cup final in East Rutherford, showing that they can put on a dominant performance against the French powerhouse. However, Chelsea will need an equally strong performance at Stamford Bridge next Tuesday if they are to reverse their current deficit.
Historically, it is extremely rare for a London club to overturn a three-goal deficit in the first leg. Wednesday’s loss was the second time Chelsea have lost by three or more goals in the first leg of a European knockout tournament. The previous example was the 2020 Champions League Round of 16 match against Bayern Munich, where Chelsea lost 4-1 in their return game in Bavaria after the competition was suspended for months due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hurdles that may be too high to overcome
The result in Paris also joins Chelsea’s list of heavy losses in the Champions League. This is the second time the club has conceded five or more goals in a match in this competition. The other time was in the 1999-2000 quarter-finals against FC Barcelona. Chelsea won the first leg 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, but at Camp Nou Barcelona came back from behind to win 5-1 after extra time thanks to goals from players such as Rivaldo and Patrick Kluivert.
Chelsea’s task is daunting, but PSG’s European history includes at least one reminder that no lead is completely secure. The French club has taken a three-goal advantage from the first leg 14 times in continental competitions, converting 12 of those into series wins. The only exception remains one of the most famous collapses in Champions League history.
In 2017, PSG defeated Barcelona 4-0 in Paris, but lost 6-1 in the return match at the Camp Nou, in a match widely remembered as ‘La Remontada’. Barcelona scored three goals from the 88th minute onwards, completing an unlikely comeback. Chelsea will be hoping to take inspiration from that moment ahead of the decisive second leg.
