The long-running battle between Manchester City and the Premier League over what has come to be known as the ‘115 charges’ is at a critical moment, and the stakes could not be higher.
Economic experts who have followed the case say the club could face a staggering 60-point penalty if the most serious allegations are confirmed, a sanction that could not only derail the season but also drop the club from title contention to relegation contention.
City has always denied any wrongdoing, and the team insists its actions were in accordance with league rules.
But the case, which revolves around alleged breaches of Financial Fair Play and other Premier League rules, has dragged on since he was formally charged almost three years ago in February 2023.
The controversy centers on a wide-ranging series of accusations spanning nine seasons, which the Premier League says involve improper financial reporting and failure to co-operate with investigations.
The independent inquiry concluded in late 2024, but more than a year later, no verdict has been announced.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has emerged as a leading voice on the potential severity of the punishment. In an interview with Overlap, Maguire explained why the only realistic sporting sanction under Premier League rules is a point deduction rather than relegation.
what does that punishment mean?
Maguire’s assessment highlights how far the case could depart from precedent. Smaller clubs have previously faced lighter sanctions, with Everton receiving a six-point deduction for a three-year offense, but the breadth of City’s alleged conduct suggests the fine could be 10 times higher.
“We have to add zero to what we’ve seen,” Maguire said, noting that a 40 to 60 point deduction falls firmly within logic based on historical examples.
Under Premier League rules, the league cannot unilaterally demote a club to the English Football League (EFL). This means City cannot be relegated to the Third or Fourth Division as some commentators have speculated.
Instead, sporting sanctions should come in the form of goals conceded in the top flight, which could have an equally dramatic effect.
A point deduction of this magnitude could not only dampen Manchester City’s title hopes, but also push them into a relegation battle.
Such a result would have an impact on the English game as a whole, changing the landscape of the ongoing Premier League and potentially having a knock-on effect on their rivals near the bottom of the table.
“How can you be in a boardroom with the rest of the Premier League when this accusation has been proven?” Maguire continued. “Corporate misconduct is a very serious allegation…The board will have to step down and that could necessitate a complete restructuring of the club.”
But City’s confidence remained unshaken. The club insists it has “irrefutable and comprehensive evidence” to clear its name, particularly regarding the alleged non-cooperation that is at the heart of the 115-count indictment.
But for rivals and neutrals alike, the lack of a final verdict only prolongs the uncertainty. The process has taken much longer than originally expected due to the huge amount of evidence submitted by both sides, and many in the sport believe a decision could still be reached before the end of the current campaign.
