England have far bigger priorities than worrying about their chances of reaching the final.
Thomas Tuchel’s side must first defeat Argentina in Atlanta if they hope to advance to their first World Cup final since 1966.
It won’t be an easy task, but with France and Spain facing each other in the other semi-final, it’s worth thinking about: assuming England make it through, which opponent would they prefer to face?
France’s formidable attacking prowess was on full display, with Kylian Mbappé, Michael Oliseh and Ousmane Dembele tearing apart the defense and overcoming a physical battle with big smiles on their faces.
Spain, on the other hand, have been the meanest team in the World Cup, conceding just one goal in six games, with Lamine Yamal still eerily still in top gear and we all know what he’s capable of.
We dug into the fundamental performances of both teams on Machine Football to see who Tuchel and his team are likely to favor in the final.
France: favorites and players to watch in the tournament
France’s record speaks for itself. 6 games. 6th win. He scored 16 goals. They conceded only two goals.
More importantly, Didier Deschamps’ side have yet to concede a single goal in the finals, having beaten Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco on the verge of losing control.
The biggest reason for that is Mbappe. Across the tournament, he averaged 1.28 goals and 0.48 assists per 90 minutes, with a 1.76 goal contribution per game, 0.90 expected goals, 1.44 key passes and 5.91 touches inside the opposition penalty area.
Mbappe’s incredible consistency and incredible finishing make him the most dangerous man England could face if they reach the finals (Image: Machine Football)
Despite missing a penalty against Morocco, his finishing was relentlessly consistent but less creative. Two of the three assists and four of the nine important passes contributed to the 4-1 victory over the rotated Norwegian team.
In France’s remaining five games, he has scored just one goal for his team-mates. He is the most reliable scorer in the tournament, but not necessarily the most complete attacker.
Deschamps’ powerful system
Saliba puts in a Rolls-Royce performance for a mostly flawless French defense (Image: AP Photo/Petr David Josek)
The obvious instinct is to look for weaknesses in France’s defence. William Saliba’s numbers are more interesting than many might expect.
Although Saliba acquitted himself well, with his explosive speed particularly standing out when he stole the ball from Miguel Almiron against Paraguay, Machine Football only ranks Saliba in the 51st percentile for defensive duels won and in the bottom 1 percent for interceptions.
Personally, these are not elite defensive numbers. However, in the grand scheme of things, they are of little importance. Saliba ranks 72nd in counter-press recoveries, while remaining one of the best ball-playing centre-backs in the world, ranking in the top five percent for creativity and top one percent for passing accuracy.
France simply prevents his opponent from reaching a situation where Saliba repeats one-on-one duels. That’s what makes them so difficult to disassemble. There simply aren’t any obvious weaknesses to isolate.
Spain’s unconvincing campaign
Spain is also unbeaten in six games, but the scoreline is only part of the story. Famously, they needed a late Mikel Merino winner in their most recent knockout matches against Portugal and Belgium, but were held to a goalless draw with Cape Verde in the group stage.
Spain may control the game, but that doesn’t always reflect on the scoreboard. Lamine Yamal perfectly reflects that pattern. His basic numbers are still exceptional, averaging 0.47 expected goals per 90, 4.55 shots and 6.73 touches in the box while completing over 75% of his dribbles, but he has only scored 0.20 goals per 90 and is still waiting for his first assist.
Lamine Yamal has overcome injury to be able to play in the World Cup, but he hasn’t reached full speed yet – and even if he does, few players can match his impact (Image: Machine Football)
The platform is there. The final product just doesn’t follow consistently. Whoever he plays against France, and Spain if they reach the final, will hope he doesn’t start to shine again.
Why Spain is a good fit for England
England’s own tournament record helps explain why Spain are the lesser of two evils for the Three Lions. Across four matches, England conceded 7 shots (0.22 expected goals) against DR Congo, 12 shots and 1.17 x G against Panama, 13 shots and 1.58 x G against Norway, and 19 shots (1.89 x G) against Mexico.
At first glance, it appears that England simply concede more goals the longer the match goes on. However, the data tells a slightly different story.
The Democratic Republic of Congo is a real outlier. Each shot they managed was equivalent to an average of just 0.03 expected goals. Against Panama, Norway, and Mexico, that number rises to 0.10 to 0.12 xG per shot.
These three games were very different, but each time England allowed their opponents to create chances, there was a surprisingly similar level of danger.
Can England really keep Haaland, Messi and Mbappé quiet in back-to-back games and hope to win the World Cup? (Image: Richard Sellers/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images)
This is important because it suggests England’s vulnerabilities are not limited to chaotic end-to-end football. Panama had little control of the match, but still created chances of equal quality each time they played through England’s defensive structure.
France is probably the best team left in the tournament to take advantage of the moment. Mbappe is the most destructive transition player in this competition, and can turn even the slightest defensive error into a goal.
Spain have a different challenge, favoring long possessions and patient build-ups rather than repeatedly attacking the spaces behind England’s defence.
judgment
If manager Tuchel had a choice, the evidence suggests Spain is his preference. It’s not because England are fully prepared to counter them, but because Spain has shown more vulnerability than France throughout the tournament.
This is a narrower conclusion than it first appears, but it is also the one most convincingly supported by the data.
England have the quality in front of goal to instantly punish Spain for any mischief, as seen in their dramatic pair of first-half goals when they faced Mexico in the Round of 16.
No team is truly invincible, and soccer is a sport where you can win a one-off game, even if the odds are slim. But there are good reasons why France are favorites to win the title, and England supporters will be doing everything they can to get them out tonight.
But Tuchel and his players cannot afford to be distracted by that, as there is plenty to do on Wednesday night before the squad for the final is decided.
bring it on.
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