England showed it all at the Estadio Azteca on Monday morning. Defensive determination, clinical finishing, raw desire. It was a timeless match and performance, but manager Thomas Tuchel felt there was still room for improvement.
“I still think there is a departure from what we saw in training yesterday, because it was at the highest level and we only saw glimpses of it in the match.
“I’m just watching from the sidelines and I don’t feel any pressure, but I think we can still play a lot better, I think we can play a lot better, because I feel like there’s still a disconnect in terms of the level of football, the decision-making, the speed of the ball, the courage with the ball, eliminating opponents with passes, breaking through gaps. There’s still a disconnect.”
“We can still do more,” he said on BBC 5 Live after the match. “But in terms of what you love about the team as a fan and the heart and belief that the team brings, it’s unique.”
Simply put, England are up for any battle and there is no doubting the mettle of this team, but Tuchel believes there is still much he hasn’t seen from the Three Lions at this World Cup in terms of playing football their way and beating teams.
“Courage to face the ball”
One thing England haven’t seen much of yet in this competition is their ability to reliably turn control of possession into goals, which requires an element of risk-taking at the right times.
Admittedly, the match against Mexico at the fortress National Stadium was not one England expected to necessarily have the upper hand, and their hopes of dominating were finally dashed by Jarrell Quansah’s red card in the 54th minute.
Yet, according to Machine Football’s database, England produced an expected goals (xG) of 1.81 from just 220 passes against Mexico. Not taking into account Harry Kane’s penalty, that would be a non-penalty xG of 0.48 per 100 passes, which is still the second highest of England’s performances in this tournament, behind only their chaotic opening game against Croatia.
However, England have struggled to create clear chances in games where they have dominated the ball.
They faced Ghana 0-0 in the group stage. England completed 623 passes, the most in the competition, but accumulated just 0.26xG per 100 passes.
This is not a question of quantity. Against Ghana and Panama, England played the most last balls of the tournament (11 and 12 shot assists respectively).
Instead, what disappeared was the quality of what those passes produced. Against Ghana, each shot assist was worth just 0.15 xG, while a similar pattern occurred against Panama (0.17 xG per shot assist).
When they lose possession, their quality spikes. Against Croatia, England played the second-lowest number of passes in the competition (456), but provided the most shot assists per 100 passes (2.4) in any World Cup so far.
This makes sense. Carving out clear chances is harder against low blocks, but much easier in transition. Norway will offer something different in the quarter-finals, but England will still be hoping for a bigger share of possession. So they need to start finding ways to split the defense more regularly from these positions.
“Eliminating the opponent” and “taking advantage of the gap”
England are good at advancing the ball to the edge of the opponent’s box, but too often lack the ability to break through when they hold the ball in the final third.
In all five games in the competition so far, England have only managed four through balls and four “smart passes” (defined as creative, penetrating passes that intentionally try to break through the defensive line).
Most possession-based teams average a few passes of this type per game. To make matters worse, in England’s two games with the highest amount of passing, against Ghana and Panama, the Three Lions managed zero and one through ball respectively.
England’s 303 lateral passes against Ghana accounted for nearly 50% of the total, a clear indication of the pattern of ineffective domination England have witnessed when they dominated possession in this tournament.
In the games against Croatia and Mexico, England had less time on the ball and had a total of one and zero through balls respectively, but these numbers did not exactly increase because they had more space to rush into in transition.
England did not need line-breaking passes to generate high-value shots against these opponents. But when this kind of pass was needed against a low block, there was no reliable way to generate it.
The identity of the players responsible speaks volumes. In fact, Morgan Rodgers is England’s master of through passes, playing two despite playing just 160 minutes, while Elliott Anderson has more than double the number of passes into the final third per 90 (10.5) than any other player in the team.
The division of labor between Anderson and Declan Rice is clear, but their success rate is just 2.6 per 90 final third passes. But it’s not a question of getting the ball into the final third, it’s about finding the gap once England get there.
Comparing Bellingham and Rodgers on Machine Football: Rodgers’ creativity score (53.91) is slightly higher than Bellingham (48.47) (Image: Machine Football)
For that to happen, England need their central playmakers to contribute more. Jude Bellingham stole the show by scoring four times in the competition and enjoying the Player of the Match trophy, but if England’s most talented midfielder can improve on his just one through pass in five games so far, it will help his team create chances more regularly.
Is a compromise necessary?
It may not be the ideal performance Tuchel would like, but there is an argument to be made that England should play to their strengths against Norway and avoid having to rely on the very element sorely lacking in their game.
Norway dominated against Brazil with 66% possession, but produced just 1.05 xG. Of course, Erling Haaland doesn’t need many chances to find the back of the net, but the Norwegian side have shown they are willing to be patient.
If England struggle to find a breakthrough despite dominating the ball, one direct ball to a big man could end the tournament. Instead, England could contain Norway and attack them at half-time, starting either or both of their aerial defensive experts, John Stones and Big Dan Byrne. The Three Lions looked very deadly throughout the tournament.
Comparing John Stones and Dan Byrne in Machine Football, despite Byrne’s height advantage, he scores higher in tackles and Stones outperforms him in defensive headers (Image: Machine Football)
There is a time and a place for this approach. Byrne’s age and limited ability on the ball mean he’s not necessarily the best choice to start, but the big Jordy was brought into the squad on a temporary basis, as he did against Mexico – against a desperate team that threw everything into the box in an attempt to score goals.
So while we may not see ‘Dan Byrne’s master plan’ from the kick-off against Norway, Stones starting would give England the aerial security they need against a player like Haaland, plus the know-how of someone who has played alongside and trained against the giant Norwegian for four years, while also being able to quickly extract the ball from the defense during the build-up and after winning the ball back.
That killer ability in transition will be even more useful in the future as he advances to the finals. It is certainly England’s most reliable route to goal at the moment, and it may be their best bet.
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