Man City are still awaiting the outcome of 115 charges. (Image: James Gill – Danehouse, Getty Images)
Three football finance experts have shared their views on the scale of punishment if found guilty of the 115 charges brought against Manchester City. City and the Premier League are still awaiting a final verdict on alleged breaches of financial regulations between 2009 and 2018 (a period during which City won three league titles), and some reports suggest there may have been as many as 130 breaches.
The hearing into City’s alleged breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules was concluded in December 2024 after a 12-week court session, but the independent panel has yet to announce its verdict. The city denies wrongdoing and is understood to be confident of being acquitted. However, if City are found guilty of a possible breach, precedent indicates that sporting sanctions will be the primary form of punishment. Potential penalties that may be discussed range from title revocation to point deductions severe enough to lead to a club’s relegation from the top flight.
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The most serious consequences could mean the 2012, 2014 and 2018 titles would be stripped away, as well as future seasons. City are currently in the title race with Arsenal, with Josep Guardiola’s side able to close the gap on leaders the Gunners to just three points with victory on Sunday afternoon. However, even if they continue to lift trophies this season, this success could be affected by the outcome of the court case if they fail to progress further.
Football finance expert Stefan Bolson says the penalty must be “transformative” if the “capital misrepresentation” charges against City are proven. Bolson acknowledged that detitlement is an option available to the committee, but argues that it may be less realistic than a hefty point deduction. He noted that “sanctions hearings” after a guilty verdict can take months, and retroactively changing the title could be a legal minefield.
Speaking on The Room Where It Happened, Bolson said: “If the worst is proven for Manchester City, the independent panel will seek a very significant point deduction that would ensure relegation. That seems to me the most obvious punishment, but also the most obvious way to achieve what they want to achieve from that sanction.”
Experts believe it is unlikely that past titles will be expunged. (Image: Getty Images)
“Because I think it’s clear that in the worst-case scenario for Manchester City, there will be a very severe punishment. It seems to me that the case brought against Manchester City is very unlikely to succeed. But if it were to happen, the punishment would be severe.”
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire, author of The Price of Football, similarly suggests that a significant point reduction, in the 40-60 range, is more likely than the removal of past titles. He said the Premier League wanted to “look forward” rather than “rewrite history” because stripping the title would create a “ghost champion” and complicate commercial and broadcast rights already settled years ago.
He told the Overlap Fan Debate: “I think we have to add a zero to the result for Forest and Everton. So I think a deduction of 40 to 60 points is logically consistent with what we’ve seen from other decisions, based on merit. If they want more than that, we don’t know the significance of that.” Mr Maguire expects a verdict could be handed down in the coming months.
Arsenal and Man City are in the middle of a title battle (Image: Getty)
Dr Dan Plumley, who has worked in sports business since 2006, also believes that if City are found guilty, demerit points and a financial fine would be the most likely punishment. He added: “If City are found guilty, all of those could be considered as sanctions and the Premier League could push for one or a combination of them. There is no precedent, so it is very difficult to predict what the outcome will be.”
“Until we know, it’s always speculation, but if I had to guess, point deductions and fines would most likely be the most likely, with relegation and title being taken away as extreme but unlikely scenarios.”
Premier League boss Richard Masters has remained tight-lipped since the charges were announced. Still, he stressed that league rules allow for “any sanction” the committee deems appropriate. Some see this as the league putting the possibility of a “title revocation” on the table to pressure the committee into handing out meaningful punishment, even if they didn’t expect it to be a major outcome.
