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Home » Manchester United’s place in the UEFA Champions League remains uncertain as Michael Carrick’s comeback suffers its first major setback after Newcastle’s result
English premier league

Manchester United’s place in the UEFA Champions League remains uncertain as Michael Carrick’s comeback suffers its first major setback after Newcastle’s result

admin_ok9yktt6By admin_ok9yktt6March 5, 2026No Comments6 Mins Read
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‘Calm down’ – Given says after defeat against Manchester: ‘It’s not all doom and gloom’

Video credit: TNT Sports

There was understandable disappointment within the Manchester United community following Wednesday night’s dramatic late defeat to Newcastle United in the Premier League.
Despite playing with 10 men at St James’ Park for much of the second half following Jacob Ramsey’s controversial sending off to the hosts, United succumbed to William Osula’s stunner goal in stoppage time, suffering their first defeat under interim head coach Michael Carrick.

In fact, it was only the second time in eight games since the former midfielder played in the Old Trafford dugout that United failed to pick up all three points.

With six wins, including matches against title challengers Manchester City and Arsenal, they rose from seventh to third in the standings.

Since Carrick’s first game, the Manchester derby victory, United have picked up 19 points, more than anyone else in the division, including league leaders Arsenal, and have played one more game, helping them qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League.

Despite the loss to North East, TNT Sports pundit Shay Given suggested there was no reason for anyone at United to panic.

“Just because we get one result doesn’t mean everything is bleak,” he said.

“Michael has plenty of time to formulate a game plan for his next match. I hope he calmly faces the coach and those in power.”

Defeat to Newcastle was less damaging as Aston Villa and Liverpool were defeated that week, but Carrick’s side were able to hold on to third place for now.

photograph

Highlights: 10-man Newcastle Lockman United in thriller at St James’s

Video credit: TNT Sports

How many English teams will qualify for next season’s Champions League?

At this rate, the top four will qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League.

However, with six clubs still taking part in this year’s competition, as well as representative teams from the Europa League and Conference League, it seems very likely that England will maintain their top spot on UEFA’s coefficient table and claim the fifth spot for a second consecutive season.

It is also possible that one of the six players taking part in this season’s tournament could qualify by lifting the trophy while finishing outside the top five in the Premier League.

Similarly, either Villa or Nottingham Forest could qualify by winning the Europa League, even if they finish outside the top five in the Premier League.

If that happens, there will be up to seven English teams participating in next year’s tournament.

What is the current situation?

As optimistic as United’s recent resurgence was, Carrick refused to completely thwart an unlikely late-game title bid this season, but realistically, unless something great happens, the battle is likely to continue between Arsenal and City.

United are now three points behind sixth-placed Liverpool, with Villa and Chelsea in between them.

Carrick’s side are level with Villa on 51 points, while Chelsea and last season’s champions are level on 48 points.

United had been in good form since Carrick took over as manager until the game against Newcastle, but the same cannot be said for Villa, whose form has rapidly declined. During the same period, they have won only 8 points with 2 wins and 4 losses (including back-to-back losses to bottom-place Wolves and a 4-1 home defeat to Chelsea).
The Blues hired new manager Liam Rosenoir just days before Carrick, but since then they have won just two points fewer than United and only lost their first league game at Arsenal under him, before bouncing back in strong style at Villa Park.
Things are not so rosy for Arne Slott and Liverpool. Like United, they lost their most recent game against Wolves with a late goal, United’s third defeat in eight games since Carrick took over as manager, giving up 13 points in total.

Carrick’s condition since the first game of the season (January 17th)

PW-D-LPts Manchester United 86-1-119 Chelsea 85-2-117 Liverpool 84-1-313 Aston Villa 82-2-48

Who is most likely at this stage?

According to Opta, Manchester United have a 55% chance of finishing in the top four and a 76.6% chance of finishing in the top five if additional spots are confirmed.

Despite their recent downturn in form, Villa are still given the best odds of making it to the top four (80% for the top five) at 58.2%, with manager Unai Emery helping them arrest their decline.

Chelsea currently have a rate of 41.3% in the top four (65.6% in the top five), while Liverpool currently have a rate of 40.3% (63.1% in the top five).

photograph

Opta supercomputer forecast as of March 5th

Image credit: Opta

Which matches could decide the outcome?

Carrick and United will be encouraged by the fact that they have no cup or European qualification remaining as an advantage over their rivals. However, they will next face Villa in a tense game at Old Trafford as they look to bounce back from their loss to Newcastle.

A trip to Chelsea and home to Liverpool in April will also test their ambitions with trips to Bournemouth, Sunderland and Brighton.

Manchester United remaining games*

March 15 – Aston Villa (h)March 20 – Bournemouth (a)April 13 – Leeds (h)April 18 – Chelsea (a)April 27 – Brentford (h)May 2nd – Liverpool (h)May 9th – Sunderland (a)May 17th – Nottingham Forest (h)May 24th – Brighton (a)

photograph

Highlights: Pedro hits triple as Chelsea inflict more pain on Villa

Video credit: TNT Sports

Villa’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League are perhaps reflected in the fact that after the trip to Old Trafford, four of their next six games will be against relegation-threatened West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Burnley, with a decisive game against Liverpool coming up on the penultimate weekend.

Aston Villa’s remaining Premier League matches*

March 15 – Manchester United (a)March 22 – West Ham (h)April 11th – Nottingham Forest (a)April 18 – Sunderland (h)April 25 – Fulham (a)May 2 – Tottenham Hotspur (h)May 9 – Burnley (a)May 17 – Liverpool (h)May 24 – Manchester City (a)

photograph

‘Warrior’ Pedro is ‘scary’ but could be better, Rosenior says

Video credit: TNT Sports

Chelsea’s fixtures look tough on paper as they face United at home and title-chasing City, then travel to Anfield. Furthermore, Everton, Brighton and Sunderland could also be banana peels.

Chelsea’s remaining Premier League games*

March 14 – Newcastle (h)March 21 – Everton (a)April 12 – Manchester City (h)April 18 – Manchester United (h)April 26 – Brighton (a)May 2nd – Nottingham Forest (h)May 9th – Liverpool (a)May 17 – Tottenham Hotspur (h)May 24 – Sunderland (a)

photograph

Highlights: Wolves overwhelm champions Liverpool in dramatic finale at Molineux

Video credit: TNT Sports

Liverpool have perhaps the most difficult list of fixtures, as they face three other teams in the remaining four league games. May begins with a trip to Manchester, followed by Chelsea a week later and Villa away shortly after. Before that, there is the small matter of an away Merseyside derby against Everton in April.

Liverpool’s remaining Premier League matches*

March 15 – Tottenham Hotspur (h)March 21 – Brighton (a)April 11 – Fulham (h)April 19 – Everton (a)April 25th – Crystal Palace (a)May 2nd – Manchester United (a)May 9th – Chelsea (h)May 17 – Aston Villa (a)May 24 – Brentford (h)

*Subject to change

Stream the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, UEFA Conference League, Men’s and Women’s FA Cup and more on TNT Sports and Discovery+



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