Six Premier League teams will take part in the remaining 16 Champions League matches, but some routes will be more advantageous than others as the likes of PSG, Real Madrid and Barcelona remain in contention.
Arsenal have achieved a perfect record so far and are top seeds in the Champions League (Image: Clive Mason, Getty Images)
With all six teams still in the Premier League, the picture for the Champions League has become even clearer as English clubs plot a possible route to the final in Budapest.
This means more than a third of the teams in the last 16 will be from England, increasing their chances of winning the Premier League for the first time since Manchester City in 2023. Several other key players, including Real Madrid, Barcelona, PSG and Bayern Munich, all remain in play.
The playoff round has ended, and teams such as Juventus and last year’s finalist Inter Milan have withdrawn from the European stage. The new format is only in its second year, and as it stands, the top eight seeds will be split between sides of the draw.
Friday’s draw will make things clearer as all teams turn their attention to the final in the Hungarian capital in the coming months. Sporting Lisbon, currently seeded seventh, and City, seeded eighth, could face either Real or Bodo/Glimt.
Even if the Norwegians are punching above their weight, they still have a much more favorable draw than the European powerhouses. Once the last 16 is officially decided, each club will be able to confirm their path to the finals.
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Some will always be considered easier than others, even if it doesn’t happen once the whistle blows. Let’s take a look at what each Premier League wants and what they want to avoid.
man city
It may sound strange that the ideal scenario for Josep Guardiola would start with a trip to Norway, where they were beaten 3-1 by Bodo/Glimt just a few weeks ago, but the other path is Real Madrid. Ironically, they won in the Spanish capital this year, but nothing can be said about the team from the Arctic Circle.
Bodo/Glimt beat Man City earlier this year but remain the favorites (Image: Getty Images)
But in theory, Bodo/Glimt shouldn’t be enough to defeat City with both legs. In a perfect world, Bayer Leverkusen would beat either Arsenal or Bayern Munich and move into a tie for the last eight with Guardiola’s side. In this case, they will face Atletico Madrid, Newcastle, Chelsea, Barcelona, Tottenham or Liverpool in the semi-finals.
Dream route: Bodo/Glimt, Bayer Leverkusen, Tottenham
Nightmarish route: Real Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona
liverpool
The Reds last won Europe in 2019, and their failure to reach the majors last season was seen as a missed opportunity, with Arne Slott hoping to make amends this time around. Galatasaray are the most favored opponents in the last 16, but their opponents in the quarter-finals could be even more difficult.
If they draw and win against the Turkish team, the quarter-finals will be against Chelsea, Barcelona or PSG. In that case, their dream semi-final opponent would be Atalanta or Sporting Lisbon. In the worst case scenario, we will face City or Real.
Dream route: Galatasaray, Chelsea, Sporting Lisbon
Nightmarish last 16 opponents: Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal
arsenal
The Gunners have finished in the top eight and top four in the past two years. Despite still having all four trophies, they continue to talk about their expectations for the quadruple. In theory, Bayer Leverkusen would be an ideal opponent in the last 16. A win there could see them face either Bodo/Glimt, Sporting Lisbon or City. The latter is the least preferred.
The Champions League last 16 draw will take place on Friday (Image: @ChampionsLeague)
A potential semi-final encounter could feature north London rivals Tottenham. It will be a big opportunity. Conversely, a more difficult matchup could mean a draw with Liverpool, Chelsea or Barcelona. Arsenal are unbeaten and have won all eight games.
Dream route: Bayer Leverkusen, Sporting Lisbon, Tottenham
Nightmare route: Atalanta, Man City, PSG
chelsea
Five years ago, West Londoners were claiming European glory. PSG has been in good form this year, beating Barcelona 3-0, with Newcastle holding a favorable draw in the last 16, giving PSG another starting spot. Their all-England route could then continue with a game against Tottenham, although Liverpool could feature as well.
If the final four remain, Arsenal, Bayern or City could be waiting for them. In a perfect world, one or two shocks could see Bodo/Glimt or Sporting Lisbon reach the semi-finals to face Chelsea.
Dream route: Newcastle, Tottenham, Sporting Lisbon
Nightmarish last 16 opponents: PSG, Liverpool, Arsenal
tottenham
Last year’s Europa League winners and 2019 Champions League finalists, the North Londoners have enjoyed an impressive tour of Europe. The Champions League has been the stage where Tottenham have excelled this term, in contrast to their form in the Premier League.
Tottenham have enjoyed success in Europe this season despite struggling domestically (Image: Getty)
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Galatasaray are the most likely opponents to beat in the last 16, with Atlético Madrid likely to draw. Turkish side Tottenham could then play heavier-weight fixtures against either PSG, Chelsea or Barcelona.
Dream last 16 opponents: Galatasaray, PSG, Sporting Lisbon
Nightmarish last 16 opponents: Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal
newcastle
Eddie Howe’s side thrashed Qarabag in the play-off round, scoring nine goals in two games, and the draw means they will face either Chelsea or Barcelona. Newcastle have beaten the Blues in recent years, while Barcelona have already beaten the Magpies this season.
If that happens, they will face either Liverpool, Tottenham or Atletico Madrid in the last eight. If they can negotiate that, it would be a perfect semi-final matchup against Sporting Lisbon or Bodo/Glimt. Most likely Arsenal, Bayern or City.
Dream last 16 opponents: Chelsea, Tottenham, Sporting Lisbon
Nightmarish last 16 opponents: Barcelona, Liverpool, Arsenal
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